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Community Impact Studies for Pandemic Influenza

Summary

Sandia studies that can help U.S. communities and schools better respond to the
COVID-19 pandemic.

Description

  • Local Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza
    Using a network agent-based model, simulations show that until sufficient vaccine becomes available, influenza could be halted solely through social distancing whereby children and teenagers stay home while the rest of the population continues normal day-to-day activities. 

    Glass, R.J., Glass, L.M., and Beyeler, W. E. National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center, Sandia National Laboratories, December 21, 2005. SAND 2005-7955J
  • Social Contact Networks for the Spread of Pandemic Influenza in Children and Teenagers
    Evaluation of social distancing measures applied during a pandemic suggests that closing schools and sending students home must be augmented with further distancing measures to protect students in either a 1957 or 1918-like pandemic.

    Glass, L.M., Glass, R.J. Social contact networks for the spread of pandemic influenza in children and teenagers. BMC Public Health 8, 61 (2008).
  • Health Outcomes and Costs of Community Mitigation Strategies for an Influenza Pandemic in the U.S.
    Multi-layered mitigation strategies that include adult and child social distancing, use of antivirals, and school closure are cost-effective for a moderate to severe pandemic. Choice of strategy should be driven by the severity of the pandemic, as defined by case fatality rate and infectivity.

    Perlroth, D.J., Glass, R.J., Davey, V.J., Garber, A.M., Owens, D.K., Healthcare outcomes and costs of community mitigation strategies for an influenza pandemic in the U.S. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 50:165–174, DOI: 10.1086/649867, 2010. 
  • Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza Pandemic
    In a modeled influenza epidemic, safe rescinding of child or community sequestering according to incident cases in 7 days achieved epidemic management targets and used fewer days of strategy than continuation strategies. 

    Davey, V.J., Glass, R.J. Rescinding community mitigation strategies in an influenza pandemic. Emerging Infectious Diseases, Volume 14, Number 3, March 2008.

Additional Information

SAND2020-5600 W
AvailabilityAvailablePublished06/12/2020Last Updated06/15/2020